[topic] article: US-RU-negotiations 2022 (2021-12-31)

[Arnaud Rasing]

[TOC] Table of Contents

EAST & WEST 2022

N E G O T I A T I O N S

     

       

board: Gorbatschov

                   

details

       

       

     

THE USSR-LEGACY

Russia has a history of autocratic rule and of installing or protecting autocratic states and rulers.
In Eastern-Europe they remember the oppressive GDR (Honecker) and dictatorial Romania (Ceaucescu).
The Hungarians remember what transpired in 1956 and the Czechs remember 1968 vividly when Russian tanks were rolling through their capital.
[Besides, for the record, let us not forget about the West having condoned fascist regimes in Chili (Pinochet) and Argentina (Galtieri).]

People in Poland and the Baltic states are in constant fear for their future because of close Russian military presence.
Today, we witness Russian influence in the police-state Belarus (Lukachenko) and in civil war-torn Syria (Assad).

NATO will never withdraw from Eastern-Europe as required by their nations which are meanwhile cherishing an increasing level of prosperity, freedom and democracy.

UKRAINE

Ukraine is somewhat different. It does not enjoy NATO- nor EU-membership; it is here where the West and the East meet, where Athens and Sparta meet.
For a couple of years Ukraine is moving away from Russian influence and is seeking an approach to the West.
Russia has responded by actively supporting the pro-Russian separatists in Eastern-Ukraine and has cunningly occupied Crimea.

Russia proclaims it has serious concerns about its security as it might feel somewhat encircled although NATO would never challenge the territorial integrity of Russia.
Now, Russia demands NATO to withdraw from Eastern-Europe and to not seek Ukrainian NATO-membership.

In times of peace you need debate-loving Athenians, in times of war you need tough Spartans.

TALKS

We may expect the negotiations to be successful. There will be agreements on Ukraine and a re-START. New treaties will be signed; appeasement will ensue.

There are a number of issues - read irritations - to be addressed cq. resolved:

• Crimea, Russia wants sanctions to be lifted (but with which formula ?),
• East-Ukraine, the separatists are in need of some form of legitimacy (should it be granted ?),
• Syria, this civil war should end a.s.a.p. (is a regime change possible ?),
• Belarus, Europe wants an end to the provocations (are valid elections possible ?),
• MH17-disaster (Malaysia, Australia and the Netherlands want the suspects to present themselves in court),
• human rights, freedom of speech and press, political conventions (this will be aching for yet another decade to come),
• the reduction of nuclear and chemical weapons (quite faisable),
• and also the Nordstream 2 - gas pipeline concerns.

Presumably, not all of the above can lead to tangible results.

Anyway, the main players - Russian president Vladimir Putin and US-president Joe Biden - will engage in a nice game of chess when they meet in Geneva.

BUT

The hawks and the persons opposing the agreements will try to spoil it all later on by provoking an armed conflict dragging the opposing parties into war.
Will the opposing parties show wise self-restraint and be united to deflect the dangers ?

HISTORY

It all happened before with the major powers of the 19th century when they stumbled into war about Crimea (1853-1856).
Due to poor assessment and judgment, delays in the communication and misinterpretation of each others motivations
the Russians and the Turks - sided by England, France and Sardinia - engaged in a 29 months lasting conflict at the expense of about 50.000 lives.
This war was a no-brainer from the start and in the end Russia lost influence in the European theater for about a century.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War

SOLUTION

The main issue of Ukraine can be resolved by declaring it a neutral zone for a period yet to be agreed upon.
Meanwhile, Ukraine enjoys protection from the US and its allies and Russia as well.
Ukraine should be declared a common market where the EU-US-UA-RU-partners can trade and prosper.
This, of course, is an experiment with its own merits and pitfalls but, for sure, to be preferred above a dangerous armed conflict which might easily escalate and spiral devastatingly out of control (because of the nature of modern weaponry).

TINY EPILOG

So, are the doves deciding for our future or are the hawks dictating it all ?
To the core, are Athens and Sparta ready for a brand new epoch of 'entente cordiale' ?
[By the way, in 480 BC the combined forces of Athens and Sparta defeated the vast army of Xerxes; paving the way for occidental autonomy.]

Anyhow, I wish every living creature on this beautiful planet called Earth a happy and peaceful 2022 !

Arnaud Rasing, Nijmegen-NL

Friday, December 31st. 2021
Tweet Feb.11th., 2022
Mr. Putin you are in for some ungly surprises once you attempt to invade Ukraine.
Those people do not want to be forced into your national-autocratic Putin-Re-Union (under CSTO-umbrella).
CNN on UA-RU

Tweet Feb. 13th., 2022
CNN explains why the Minsk-agreement might be a way out of the UA-RU-crisis.
It could serve as a basis for a solid agreement, indeed, if there is no room for misconception or misinterpretation.
CNN on Minsk-agreement